Hawai`i projected to edge Northern Illinois despite shared struggles

Strength of schedule is the number that separates these two more than their records suggest. Northern Illinois carries a schedule rank of 25 in FBS, by far the toughest of the pair, while Hawai`i sits at 74, a notably softer slate. That gap helps explain why Versus still gives the Warriors a slight edge even though both teams arrive with one win between them.

Hawai`i is 1-6 and has dropped four straight, but no opponent has beaten the Warriors by more than 18 points all season, a sign the losses have at least stayed competitive. Northern Illinois, at 0-6, has been outscored badly across its recent stretch, and every one of its six losses has come against a team with a winning record, which tracks with that difficult schedule rank.

Versus projects Hawai`i to win 24-22, a two-point margin that puts the Warriors as 55 percent favorites. The game counts in the Mountain West standings, with both teams graded D- overall and looking for any separation they can find in a conference season that has been unforgiving to each of them so far.